Founder’s strategy: The preferred communication shock in February waits for March to reach a decision

Founder’s strategy: The preferred communication shock in February waits for March to reach a decision

[Founder’s strategy]February is waiting for shocks, summary of strategic research in March at the moment of decision and main points of view 1, market view: February is waiting for shocks, March is at the moment of decision.

The market rally since January 2019 is a rally of the Spring Festival. The catalyst lies in further policy overweight, especially in January, when monetary policy showed a significant overweight, including the Prime Minister ‘s call to inclusive financial policy, 2 reductions, and the creation of TMLF tools.As well as perpetual debt to supplement bank capital, the further promotion of the policy by the market depends on the fiscal policy overweight. This is the adjustment of the fiscal budgets of the two sessions in March. At present, the market has fully expected domestic policies, and subsequent risks are preferred.The decisive factors are absolutely two aspects: one is the start of the spring; the other is the Sino-US trade process, and these two levels will only be seen in March. Therefore, for the stock market, March will be the moment of decision, and the start of the Spring Festival is necessary.In view of the nature of the economic downturn, the final result of the Sino-US trade war was incorporated into the substance of economic expectations.

From the perspective of liquidity, the expansion of credit volume is the general trend. Expanding the shadow bank clean-up and reducing the cost of social financing, but the expansion of currency to credit requires a strong signal. In 2008 and after several rounds of credit expansion, signals of expanding interest rates appeared, and the current interest rate reductionThe conditions are not yet met, and follow-up attention will be paid to the continued stabilization of social finance.

From the perspective of industry configuration, pay attention to three clues. One is the related industries of counter-cyclical hedging, including power equipment and new energy, construction, etc., the other is blue chip technology, including 5G, the Internet of Things, the Industrial Internet, etc., and the third is the stable consumer industry.For example, household appliances, food and beverages, etc. In summary, in February, three industries such as communications, electrical equipment, and home appliances are preferred.

  2. The main idea of industry configuration: Generally speaking, February is waiting for shocks. In terms of economy, the start of spring in March determines the nature of the economic downturn. There are two angles to judge the quality of the peak season. One is the alternating price of cyclic products.The second is the grassroots investigation to observe the behavior of the government and enterprises; liquidity focuses on the stabilization of social financing growth. The stabilization of social financing depends on the amount of credit on-balance sheet, but on the initial contraction of off-balance sheet. In terms of risk appetite,The third round of the Sino-US trade war is scheduled to begin next week. March 1st is the first observation time point, and the more important time point is the Osaka G20 meeting in June.

Taken as a whole, structural opportunities focus on counter-cyclical hedging-related industries, technology blue chips, and stable consumer industries.

  3, February preferred communications, electrical equipment, home appliances.

The supporting logic of communication lies in the acceleration of 5G business progress, performance pitting, the expectation of repair and upward prosperity, which are the driving forces of manufacturing investment.

The supporting logic of electrical equipment lies in the new infrastructure to boost industry demand, sector changes at the bottom of history and the driving force of manufacturing.

The supporting logic of home appliances lies in the continuous inflow of foreign exchange, a good degree of matching of performance distribution, and the relaxation of trade scale.

  The main body of the report: 1 Market: February is waiting for shocks, March decision moment Market view: February is waiting for shocks, March decision moments.

The market rally since January 2019 is a rally of the Spring Festival. The catalyst lies in further policy overweight, especially in January, when monetary policy showed a significant overweight, including the Prime Minister ‘s call to inclusive financial policy, 2 reductions, and the creation of TMLF tools.As well as perpetual debt to supplement bank capital, the further promotion of the policy by the market depends on the fiscal policy overweight. This is the adjustment of the fiscal budgets of the two sessions in March. At present, the market has fully expected domestic policies, and subsequent risks are preferred.The decisive factors are absolutely two aspects: one is the start of the spring; the other is the Sino-US trade process, and these two levels will only be seen in March. Therefore, for the stock market, March will be the moment of decision, and the start of the Spring Festival is necessary.In view of the nature of the economic downturn, the final result of the Sino-US trade war was incorporated into the substance of economic expectations.

From the perspective of liquidity, the expansion of credit volume is the general trend. Expanding the shadow bank clean-up and reducing the cost of social financing, but the expansion of currency to credit requires a strong signal. In 2008 and after several rounds of credit expansion, signals of expanding interest rates appeared, and the current interest rate reductionThe conditions are not yet met, and follow-up attention will be paid to the continued stabilization of social finance.
From the perspective of industry configuration, pay attention to three clues. One is the related industries of counter-cyclical hedging, including power equipment and new energy, construction, etc., the other is blue chip technology, including 5G, the Internet of Things, the Industrial Internet, etc., and the third is the stable consumer industry.For example, household appliances, food and beverages, etc. In summary, in February, three industries such as communications, electrical equipment, and home appliances are preferred.

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1 The continued improvement of risk appetite depends on the start of spring and the catalyst for the Spring Festival agitation since January in the trade negotiations. It is the overweight of domestic policies and the restoration of global risk assets caused by changes in the Federal Reserve.

Since January, the average value of the global stock market has increased to a certain extent due to the weakening of interest rate hike expectations in the United States. In March, it is basically determined that there will be no interest rate hikes. Global faucets are no longer tightened, and risk assets are repaired.

In addition to global resonance, the growth of the domestic stock market is an important catalyst for further overweight domestic policies. In particular, there have been significant changes in the scale of monetary policy, including the Prime Minister ‘s three major banks at the beginning of the month to speak to Inclusive Finance, twice in late January.The RRR cut releases $ 800 billion of incremental funds, the creation of incremental TMLF tools, and the replenishment of commercial banks’ capital with perpetual debt. The subsequent increase in market risk appetite depends on the increase in fiscal policy tax and fee reduction efforts andChanges in the OMO interest rate of monetary policy, in which the intensity of fiscal policy will be clearly adjusted at the two sessions in March, the decisive price trend of the change in interest rate of monetary policy, and the attitude of the Federal Reserve. At present, the market has fully anticipated the policy and the subsequent increase in risk appetiteIt depends on two factors. One is the start of the peak season in March; the other is the outcome of the Sino-US trade war negotiations.

  Construction in the spring of March determined the nature of the economic downturn.

At present, the economy is in a down phase, and market differences are not large. The core differences are two points. One is the nature of the economic downturn, whether it is a slow down or a rapid downturn; the second is the time when the economy bottomed out.

Judging from the latest data, China Mining’s PMI data has improved slightly from the previous 12 months, but it is still in a contraction range. Among them, the new order index and the orders in hand index have fallen, which means that demand is still sluggish.Change from 49.

Level 7 to 48.

3.

The trade budget, South Korea’s exports as a leading indicator, the growth breakdown in January accelerated, from -1.

3 fell back to -5.

8%, except for the United States, the PMI of major countries has been moving downward. Among them, Japan and Europe are approaching the contraction range. In terms of real estate, the current real estate boom has exceeded the telescope’s several cycles in terms of time cycle. It has been maintained for 44 consecutive months.Prosperity means that the subsequent real estate adjustment time period will exceed the previous period.

The policy of stable growth has continued to increase since the end of last year, especially for infrastructure and small, medium and micro enterprises. March is a season of restructuring. The start of the spring season will be of significance for subsequent economic growth. Judging the quality of the peak season from two perspectives.It is the high-frequency price change of cyclic products, and the second is the grassroots investigation to observe the behavior of government and enterprises.

  The Sino-US trade war on March 1st was the first observation time point, and the more important time point was the Osaka G20 meeting in June.

At present, the China-US transition has undergone two rounds of tandem since the meeting of the heads of state of Argentina. The third round of tandem has begun next week. In addition to the import of traditional goods, it also includes compulsory technology transfer, copyright protection, and network intrusion.The United States proposes that any agreement between the two parties in trade must be a comprehensive plan that can be continuously tested and effectively implemented, which means that the United States pays more attention to the issue of commitment intervention.

The focus of the Sino-U.S. Trade dispute game in 2019 will be on special rules and systems. The tariff war will most likely be truce. The next key point will be the Osaka G20 in June and disputes over WTO reforms. Will the United States lead a non-market economy?The rules are divided into WTO rules that deserve important attention.

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2Liquidity Focusing on the stabilization of social financing growth The expansion of liquidity in credit volume is already a trend.

Policy budgets guide credit expansion. Reduction is the need to clean up shadow banks and rectify financial chaos. Reduction is a consideration to reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

At present, the main method is to reduce the statutory deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks. It has fallen by 1% twice in January. The next observation point will be in March and April.

The reduction of the statutory deposit reserve ratio can increase the capacity of commercial banks to extend credit, and at the same time, supplement the capital of commercial banks with perpetual bonds 青岛夜网 to increase the expenditure of credit release by commercial banks.According to expectations, the phenomenon of bill rushing is still obvious, and the demand for medium and long-term loans is insufficient.

  Historically, monetary expansion to credit expansion requires a clear signal of interest rate cuts.

For credit expansion in 2009, the reduction was four interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2008; for credit expansion after the fourth quarter of 2012, restructuring was two interest rate cuts in the third quarter of 2012; credit expansion after 2016 depends on 2014 and 2015Continued interest rate cuts.

Therefore, the smooth exchange of currency to credit requires a strong signal release. Generally speaking, interest rate cuts have a clear signal meaning of credit expansion, but whether the conditions for 上海夜网论坛 interest rate cuts need to be evaluated at present can be price pressure, which reduces the pressure on exchange rates.At present, the conditions for reducing interest rates in the first half of 2019 are not complete. It is necessary to closely track whether the OMO interest rate and the SLF interest rate have been reduced.  It is worth tracking whether the growth rate of social financing can continue to stabilize.

The growth rate of social financing continued to decline from the fourth quarter of 2017, and in the second quarter of 2018, it was confirmed that the credit contraction had restrained the economic downturn. This cycle was roughly two quarters ahead, and once it was confirmed that social financing bottomed out, economic growth could be judged.It will bottom out in 2 quarters, so it is worth tracking that the growth rate of social finance can continue to stabilize.

The stabilization of social finance depends on the amount of on-balance-sheet credit, and the reorganization depends on the trend of off-balance-sheet contraction. The contraction of off-balance-sheet business requires the marginal relaxation of supervision. The signal of concern is whether the new rules on asset management have been adjusted.

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3 types of asset allocation: the stock market is waiting for shocks, the bond market remains slow, and the major types of assets are commodity differentiation: the current basic background: 1) economic growth, the downward differences are not large, the core differences are the downward magnitude and duration, in real estate incomeAs well as the fact that infrastructure is slowing down, the duration of the slow economic downturn may be prolonged; 2) The expansion of liquidity on credit has become the general trend, but the replacement of currency to credit requires a clear signal of interest rate cuts, and it is quickly tracked whether the growth rate of social financing has continued to stabilize;) 3) Policy and market risk appetite. The policy has entered an empty window period. Pay attention to policies after the Spring Festival and during the National Congress. The risk appetite depends more on the outcome of the Sino-US trade war negotiations and the start of the spring season.

The stock market is generally in the rebound stage caused by the spring turmoil, but the driving force will be improved in February. Due to the lack of capital demand in the bond market, the pattern of slow and volatile cows remains unchanged. The overall differentiation of commodities and the increase in crude oil decline have led to pressure on chemicals.The domestic black is in a volatile range, and precious metals such as gold and silver have strong hedging properties.

  Stock market style dimensions, we mainly divide styles from two perspectives, one is the market size perspective, which is divided into large-cap and small-mid-cap market; the second is the industry attribute perspective, which is divided into investment products, consumer goods and services.

In the big context of 2019, industries that need to avoid post-cycles, such as banks, steel, coal, and other strong periodic products, are better in style than medium-sized blue chips. They are relatively optimistic about technology and consumption. Finance and cyclical low allocation. They are optimistic about counter-cyclical industries such as electricity.Equipment and new energy, construction, etc.

Taken together, the three industries of communications, electrical equipment, and home appliances are preferred in February.

◆ Preferred industry and logic ◆ Communication | Electrical equipment | Home appliances 2.Industry configuration in February: preferred communication, electrical equipment, and home appliance industry configuration main thoughts: Overall, February is waiting for shock, economically, and the start of spring in March determines the nature of the economic downturn, which needs to be judged from two perspectivesIn the high season, the first is the high-frequency price changes of cyclic products, and the second is the grassroots investigation to observe the behavior of the government and enterprises; liquidity focuses on the stabilization of social financing growth, and the stability of social financing depends on the amount of credit on the table.Complications that depend on off-balance sheet contraction; in terms of risk attention, the third round of China-US trade war turn to integration next week, March 1st is the first observation time point, and the more important time point is the Osaka G20 in Junemeeting.
Taken as a whole, structural opportunities focus on counter-cyclical hedging-related industries, technology blue chips, and stable consumer industries.

  The subject of communication: one of the supporting factors of ZTE, Fiberhome, Guangxun Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, etc .: 5G business process speeds up.

The Central Economic Work Conference accelerated the commercialization of 5G, the 5G spectrum was launched, the nationwide trial network construction began, and operators accelerated industry application testing and 5G terminal promotion.

Huawei’s 5G folding mobile phone will be released on February 24, and other mobile phone manufacturers will also release 5G mobile phones in early 2019. The communications industry will usher in intensive catalysis.

  The second supporting factor: performance pitting, there is expectation for repair.

  The growth of the communications sector in 2018H1 and Q3 was -48.

39% and 0%, and subsequent repairs are expected.

Judging from the companies that have announced the performance forecast at present, the industry is less affected by the impairment of goodwill.

  The three supporting factors: upward prosperity, the driving force of manufacturing investment.

The 5G industry chain is booming, and investment growth has maintained a growth rate of more than two digits, which is expected to continue to be a support for manufacturing investment.

  The subject of electrical equipment: Longji shares, Guodian NARI, Goldwind Technology, Ningde Times, Sunshine Power and other supporting factors: new infrastructure to increase industry demand.

At the end of 2018, the Central Economic Work Conference first proposed new infrastructure. Electrical equipment is expected to benefit from shortcomings in infrastructure construction. In the fine-molecular industry, the photovoltaic parity access policy has been implemented, UHV construction has restarted, and nuclear power projects have been approved for opening, which will increase overall industry demand.

  Supporting factor two: The plate is estimated to be at the bottom of history.

At present, the overall PE of the electrical equipment industry is about 24 times, and the PB is 1.

45 times, both at the bottom level of the 10’s, there are already estimated opportunities for repair.

  The third supporting factor: the driving force of manufacturing investment.

In manufacturing investment, the growth rate of investment in electrical equipment continued to rise, reaching a growth rate of 13 in 18 years.

4% is expected to continue to be a support for manufacturing investment.

  Home appliances: Gree Electric, Midea Group, Qingdao Haier, Supor, Little Swan A, Cobos and other supporting factors: Foreign inflows continue.

  The net inflow of capital from Kitakami in January exceeded 60 billion US dollars, the highest monthly rate. In January, foreign key home appliances were increased. Among them, Midea and Gree held a significant rise in the stock market value. Under the background of continued continuous inflows, home appliances are expected to become key industries.

  Supporting factor two: The performance estimates match well.

At present, the overall appliance industry is estimated to be about 12 times, located in the bottom area, and has a higher margin of safety.

The growth rate of the household appliances sector in 2018H1 and Q3 was 22 respectively.

79% and 13.

32%, better matching performance estimates.

  The third supporting factor: easing of trade policy.

On February 11, the United States will initially visit Beijing for a new round of negotiations. It is expected that a phased trade agreement will be reached before March 2. The amount of restricted Chinese household electrical appliances exported to the United States accounts for about 13% of the global total exports.Increased tariffs will help improve the risk appetite of the home appliance sector.

Risk reminder: the external market has fallen sharply, economic growth has fallen, policies have fallen short of expectations, etc.