Shun Xin Agriculture (000860): A new high income in advance highlights the expectation of further reforms

Shun Xin Agriculture (000860): A new high income in advance highlights the expectation of further reforms
The company’s 18-year performance is close to the forecast hub. Liquor has a strong growth in the fourth quarter, and 5.7 billion advances at the end of the year have become a bright spot.Initially focusing on the liquor business strategy, the strategic results have begun to appear. The liquor business has basically been determined to exceed 10 billion yuan this year. Against the background of a major increase in the management system corresponding to the nationwide layout, the activation of the system will be the core continuation point of gradual growth, and it will also help lift the estimation suppression factor.We adjusted our profit forecast for 19-20 to 10.0 billion, 12.900 million, giving 25 times over 20 years, giving a target market value of 32 billion US dollars, maintaining the “strongly recommended-A” rating. The performance was close to the forecast center, and the advance receipts became a bright spot.The company’s 18-year revenue is 120.74 ppm, a ten-year increase2.9%, net profit 7.440,000 yuan, an increase of 69 in ten years.8%, of which the fourth quarter revenue rate is -0.5%, profit growth of 25.1%, close to the performance forecast center.Liquor business preliminary income 92.80,000 yuan, an increase of 43 in ten years.8%, of which 35 in the second half of the year.40,000 yuan, an increase of 21 in ten years.1%, a quarter-on-quarter improvement.Preliminary income from slaughtering business23.68 million, increased by -20 due to low pig prices.2%, gross margin rose to 7.2%, real estate and other businesses confirmed 4.28 trillion, real estate business is expected to confirm about 2 trillion.In terms of cash flow, advance receipts at the end of the year56.53 trillion, expected to increase by 25 trillion in the fourth quarter, cash receipts / revenues in a single quarter amounted to 197%, so according to the company’s real sales of liquor business clearly shifted, monetary funds increased to 61.7.2 billion, business structure further focuses on liquor. Changes in the gross profit margin-expense rate structure amplify channel thrust, and there is still room for cost-effective optimization of profit elasticity.The company’s highest gross profit margin is 49.6%, a decline of 5 per year.3 pcts, mainly because the liquor business has changed the marketing method since 17H2. The marketing expenses are borne by the distributors. The company gives distributors product sales discounts, which has an impact on the substitution base of the first half of the gross profit margin.Half-year liquor gross profit margin 52.9%, an increase of 4 per year.One.Under the new model, the channel thrust is enlarged, and the expense ratio is optimally optimized. The sales expense ratio for liquor in 18 years is 167% excellence dropped to 12.5%; management expense ratio 5.6%, down by 1 every year.3pcts, the new cost optimization effect has begun to appear.Preliminary financial costs1.US $ 4.4 billion, which continues to decline every year, and gradually reduces the completion of land business development, and then gradually decreases.In the future, there is still room for optimization in the cost-effectiveness ratio. Improvement in governance will help bring about a reduction in the expense ratio and further improvement in the asset structure. The nationalization potential of Niulanshan is accelerating, and the only way to encourage the implementation of land is to expand the management scale.Niulan Mountain has a good sales during the Spring Festival. There is no contradiction in the Beijing local port market before and after 天津夜网 the Spring Festival. Foreign markets such as East China have continued to grow at a high rate in two places, and this has been transformed into the growth of mass liquor consumption.Mountain brand’s nationalization potential is accelerating.Liquor business is basically determined to exceed 10 billion yuan this year. The company’s focus on liquor business strategy results have initially shown. Under the background of a major increase in the national management system, system activation is the core continuation point of gradual growth.The improvement of the system and the optimization of the mechanism have taken another step. Subsequently, we continue to look forward to the steady progress of corporate governance reforms and incentives in order to mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties, promote the continuous optimization of profitability, and the continuous improvement of the company’s internal value. We give a one-year target market value of 320 trillion and maintain the “strongly recommended-A” rating.We are optimistic about the nationalization prospect of Niulanshan in the mass liquor market. Execution efficiency determines the progress of the growth path. If internal governance continues to improve, I believe that the progress of nationalization will accelerate, and it will also help lift alternative suppressing factors.We adjusted our profit forecast for 19-20 to 10.0 billion, 12.900 million, a 21-year profit forecast16.200 million, giving 25 times PE for 20 years, giving a target market value of 320 trillion for one year, corresponding to a target price of 56 yuan, maintaining the “strong recommendation-A” level. Risk warning: sluggish demand, intensified competition, and increased consumption tax rate for liquor.