Xiangpiaopiao (603711): The absolute leader in brewing the tea industry has the potential to explode

Xiangpiaopiao (603711): The absolute leader in brewing the tea industry has the potential to explode
Earnings forecast and estimation: It is predicted that the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 will be 40.2 billion, 48.1 billion, 55.8 billion, an annual growth of 23.6%, 19.9%, 15.9%, net profit attributable to mothers is 3 respectively.5.2 billion, 4.72 billion, 5.7.6 billion, an increase of 12% in ten years, 34.1%, 21.9%, EPS is 0.84 yuan, 1.13 yuan, 1.37 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE for 2019-2020 is 38x and 28x respectively.Considering that the new juice tea is in the process of rapid volume growth and good growth, meanwhile, the one-time expenses caused by fair incentives have an impact on 19-year profits, but do not affect long-term operations. For the first time, Xiangpiaopiao is given an overweight rating.Price 33.8 yuan, corresponding to about 40x, 30x in 2019-20. Key assumptions: Predict that the sales volume of coconut fruit series will increase by 12%, 10%, and 8% in 2019-2021, and the sales unit price will increase by 1% and 0.5%, 0%; 2019-2021 is expected to increase sales volume of delicious series by 15%, 13%, 10%, sales unit price growth rate of 3%, 1%, 1%; forecast 2019-15 juice fruit tea sales growth rate of 150%, 70%, 40%, sales unit price growth rate of 1%, 2%, 3%.It is predicted that the sales expense ratio for 2019-2021 will be 24.5%, 24.5%, 24.4%, the management expense ratio (including research and development expenses) is 5 respectively.1%, 4.4%, 4.1%. The increase in the management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) in 2019 is mainly due to the impact of the total share of equity incentive costs. Repositioning and starting again, the solid product channel sinks the remaining space: Beginning in 2016, the company repositioned and reorganized the product image of the reorganized solid milk tea product, and proposed the slogan “Small hungry and sleepy, drink some fragrance”, Further clarified the consumption scenario and product positioning; at the same time, the company began to start the refined operation of the channel, increase the proportion of franchised dealers, strengthen the control and evaluation of dealers, the company is committed to more market development, and further weak marketsSegmentation and refinement further promote channel sinking.Judging from 成都桑拿网 the company’s current regional sales situation, it is still mainly concentrated in the East China region, and other large regions still have potential.It is expected that under the combined effect of refined market operations and sinking channels, the company’s traditional brewing products are expected to recover to double-digit stable growth. Juice tea is expected to quickly increase the volume to create a new explosion: Juice tea is positioned as a ready-to-drink tea for casual consumption, and the consumption scene is more convenient and diverse. The price band is consistent with the price band of Xiangpiaopiao wine solid milk tea, covering channels and end consumersIt has a high degree of coincidence, and the consumption between the juice and tea seasons is relatively balanced, and the summer is relatively more prosperous. 杭州桑拿 It can perfectly complement the internal brewing products, regardless of the company’s front-end production arrangements or the use of dealers and distributors.Get better balance.At present, the company has not actively carried out large-scale publicity and promotion. After the first round of sales of juice tea, it has formed a better natural sales situation. The sales in the off-season in winter is better than expected.It is expected that the company’s long-term development space in the field of liquid beverages is expected to open subsequently. Catalysts for continued performance: New fruit juice teas perform better than expected, solid product demand picks up Core assumptions Risks: Industry demand is lower than expected, new entrants lead to increased competition in the industry, food safety risks