Hengli Petrochemical (600346) Semi-annual Report Comment: Refining and Chemical Projects Put into Production to Improve Performance
Matters: The company announced its semi-annual report for 2019 and realized operating income of 423 in 1H19.
3 ten percent, an increase of 60 per year.
0%; net profit attributable to mother 40.
2 ten percent, an annual increase of 113.
6%; budget benefit 0.
57 yuan, net assets 4.
Ping An’s view: Refining and chemical projects put into operation to help improve performance: In the first half of 2019, it realized revenue of 423.
3 ‰, an increase of 60 in ten years.
0%, of which the second quarter revenue was 272.
80,000 yuan, an increase of 83 in ten years.
5%, an increase of 81 from the previous month.
The first is that the company’s preliminary 2000 refining and chemical project was put into production in May and began to contribute performance.
At the end of the last 6 months, the production and sales of refined oil products were 45, the output of chemical products was 228 inches, and the sales volume was 226 inches.
The total revenue of the refining segment in the first half of the year was 164.
700 million US dollars, considering that the effective operating time of the refining and chemical plant in the second half of the year is much longer than the first half, it is expected that the third quarterly report and annual report will continue to grow.
The performance of the PTA business is excellent, and the downstream filament products are under pressure: the PTA boom rebounded in the first half of the year. Due to the strong rebound of crude oil prices in the first half of the year due to factors such as OPEC production cuts, the price of PTA rose.
However, due to trade friction and other factors, polyester filament demand and price were under pressure. In the first half of the year, POY Jiangsu and Zhejiang inventory reached 19 days and DTY reached 30 days or more.
In the first half of the year, the average molecular weight of civilian polyester filament products was 9,994 yuan / ton, and the average molecular weight of industrial polyester filaments was 10,767 yuan / ton, which replaced 3 at the same time.
78% and 13.
The increase in the price of PTA raw materials and the decline in the price of filament products have squeezed the profit margins of filaments.
Projects under construction will provide performance growth for 2020 and 2021: the company is constructing 500 tons of PTA projects (250 tons of PTA-4 and PTA-5 each) and 佛山桑拿网 150 tons of ethylene projects. Most of the upstream raw materials for new projects come from refinery units.PX, refinery dry gas, n-butane and naphtha. Products include phenol, styrene, high-density polyethylene (HDPE), polypropylene (PP), etc., which will further increase the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials andProfitability.
At present, the construction of the project has entered the critical equipment installation period. It is planned that the blood glucose, replacement, and styrene and other devices will be driven in September 2019. The ethylene plant will be charged on October 20th, and the PTA-4 line will be charged; February 2020, PTA-5The installation of the line was completed, and the materials were put into operation in early March.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Among the several domestic private refining and chemical projects, the company’s project progress, in May 2019, took the lead in the industry to take the lead in production.
Two months contributed 164 to the company’s first half performance.
With 700 million in revenue, the current refinery and chemical plant is operating stably. The effective operating time in the second half of the year is six months, which is three times that of the first half. The performance is expected.
The company’s polyester filaments are under pressure but the PTA boom is picking up. The 500-ton PTA project and the 150-ton ethylene project under construction will be put into production one after another, becoming a new growth point for the company’s performance.
Based on the latest market environment and project progress, we adjusted the company’s net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 to be 89.
900 million, 166.
0 ppm and 192.
0 million yuan (originally 9.6 billion yuan in 2019 and 12.5 billion yuan in 2020), the corresponding EPS is 1.
73 yuan, the corresponding PE is 10 respectively.
2, 5.5 and 4.
8 times, maintain the “recommended” level.
Risk reminders: 1) Market risk: The company’s products include civilian polyester filaments, industrial polyester filaments, polyester chips, polyester films, engineering plastics, gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, etc. The downstream market covers clothing, automobiles, packaging,Electronics, transportation and other industries.
The prosperity of these industries at home and abroad is closely related to the sales of company products.
2) The progress of projects under construction is less than expected: the company is currently constructing PTA and ethylene projects, and the project progress directly affects profitability.
3) Excessive fluctuations in international crude oil: Large fluctuations in international oil prices will affect cost management and profitability of enterprises.
4) Industry competition: The company has a large number of products and is vulnerable to major internal competition such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, Tongkun, Xinfengming, Hengyi Petrochemical, PetroChina, and Sinopec.
At the same time, the company’s main product, polyester filament, is also subject to competition from natural fibers (cotton) and other chemical fibers (acrylic, spandex, nylon, etc.).